Weather tracker: Europe braces for another heat surge as tropical nights return

Another surge of heat spread across western Europe at the weekend, with Spain, Portugal and France already sweltering and southern parts of the UK joining them on Monday.

Temperatures are once again forecast to climb to 10-15C above average, with highs approaching 40C (104F) in the hottest parts of France and Spain, while the UK is expected to reach the low- to mid-30s celsius.

However, the focus should not be solely on daytime highs. Overnight conditions are also forecast to become increasingly uncomfortable as tropical nights return, with temperatures failing to fall below 20C.

In Madrid, overnight lows are forecast to remain as high as 25C – almost 9C above the seasonal average of 16.5C. The outlook is similar in France, where many areas are expected to remain in the low- to mid-20s overnight, about 7-9C above the 1991–2020 average.

School windows are painted with chalk to protect pupils from soaring temperatures in Nantes, France. Photograph: Sebastien Salom-Gomis/AFP/Getty Images

Nantes is forecast to face some of its warmest nights, with minimum temperatures unlikely to drop below 10C above the seasonal norm. Southern England and Wales will be slightly cooler but overnight temperatures in cities are still expected to remain above 20C into the weekend.

Persistently warm nights pose a significant health risk. Without cooler conditions overnight, the body has little opportunity to recover from daytime heat, increasing the risk of heat stress, particularly for older people and those with underlying health conditions.

Although this hot spell is not expected to match the exceptional heat that swept the continent in late June, its prolonged nature will still require extra care for the most vulnerable.

Flood water is cleared from a hotel in Guam as Super Typhoon Bavi batters the region. Photograph: Yuichi Yamazaki/AFP/Getty Images

Meanwhile, Super Typhoon Bavi continues to carve a destructive path across the north-western Pacific. The storm crossed the Northern Mariana Islands and Guam before making landfall on Rota on Sunday night (Monday morning local time). After rapidly intensifying on Saturday, analysis on Sunday recorded sustained winds of 178mph (155 knots), with gusts reaching 218mph.

Destructive winds are only part of the threat. Forecasts also warn of waves rising to 10.7 metres (35ft), coastal inundation reaching 3.7 metres, torrential rainfall exceeding 200mm and a heightened risk of flash flooding, alongside widespread coastal erosion and infrastructure damage.

Bavi is expected to retain super-typhoon strength until Wednesday before weakening and curving north-west towards Taiwan. Coastal flood warnings will remain in effect on Wednesday afternoon, while high surf warnings are expected to continue into Thursday.