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One of the more dramatic moments in a Liberal Democrat conference otherwise short of them came late on Sunday, when the party frontbencher Lisa Smart told the polling veteran John Curtice that, in effect, he no longer understood modern politics.
Curtice had warned the Lib Dems they risked being left behind, with the lack of a coherent national message seeing them all but ignored outside a few electoral strongholds. Smart’s response? In the new era of five- or six-party politics, and mass tactical voting, this does not matter.
It was a distillation of the largely underground debate which has dominated the gathering in Brighton and is likely to define the party’s future.
It is a battle between, depending on the stance, strategy versus recklessness, or caution versus ambition – or, more bluntly, whether the Lib Dems want to be the first choice of voters, or their route to block a Reform UK government.
The current choice, as decided by Ed Davey and his leadership team and argued forcefully by Smart, is a continuation of the 2024 electoral approach in which the party set aside a fully national campaign to focus relentlessly on a series of target seats, many of them held by the Conservatives.
It worked. As Smart argued – after Curtice pointed out that the Lib Dems had won 23% of the vote in the 2010 election – in 2024 such careful targeting helped them take 72 MPs on little more than 12% vote share, adding: “I know which one I prefer.”
Party strategists are adamant that with voting patterns atomised, many seats at the next election are likely to be won on tiny margins, with the key factors being tactical voting and a ruthlessly efficient ground game, both Lib Dem specialities.
Davey and his team say even in public that they can improve on the 2024 result, the best in a century for the party. In private, there is talk of perhaps 140 MPs, and being the balance of power in a hung parliament.
None of this is impossible, but – as Curtice said – it relies on a series of external factors to remain constant, including no noticeable dip in Reform’s fortunes or a boost for the Tories, given the way the strategy hinges on a split vote across the right.
But what is more pressing for a number of Lib Dems is the way the tactic can feel like a slightly desperate attempt to appeal to, or at least not alienate, the voters on the right and left that the party needs to enlist.
As such, the policy offering on show in Brighton – and there has been no lack of policy – has felt at times a bit disjointed, with economic offerings based on tax cuts and lower regulation balanced by calls to protect human rights.
What is lacking, some fear, is a wider vision, or any boldness. “Things need to change,” Carl Cashman, the Lib Dem opposition leader on Liverpool city council, told delegates from the conference stage. “I’m a radical because I’m a liberal, and the fact that liberalism has become synonymous with the status quo – it irks me so much.”
Julian Brazil, the Lib Dem leader of Devon county council, was more abrupt still, saying his party was “sleepwalking into irrelevance” under Davey’s leadership.
There is, however, no sign at all of a challenge to Davey. Even the more malcontented MPs accept he will take the party into the next election, and in many cases they also accept that his careful approach has merits.
Those around the Lib Dem leader say he is aware of the concerns, but feels a huge responsibility to ensure the party wins enough MPs to prevent a Reform government, something Davey sees as the defining mission of his political life.
Some argue that the apparent conflict is largely artificial, and it is possible to embrace Davey’s approach to the next election while also trying to redefine liberalism for the longer term.
There are, inevitably, still frustrations. “It’s like being stuck on a bumper car, just being buffeted by what the other parties do, with no real control,” one MP said. “Some vision would be nice.”
Another took a more hopeful view: “You could argue that we’re not being left behind, we’re just standing still, knowing what we think, while everyone else dashes around in chaos, looking stupid. And maybe we should just let them do that.”
