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Jamaica is closer than ever to drilling for oil. Tests on samples from the seabed off the Caribbean island’s south coast earlier this year identified hydrocarbons, which suggest the presence of crude oil below ground.
Jamaica imports all its fuel, which costs about $1.5-2bn (£1.1bn-1.5bn) annually, depending on global oil prices. It is a persistent drag on an economy that generated $4.3bn from tourism, its biggest earner, in 2024.
United Oil & Gas, a UK-based company, holds an exclusive exploration licence for the Walton-Morant basin, a 22,400sq km (8,650 sq mile) block off the island’s southern coast. Surface oil seeps have been repeatedly documented across the island, but so far there has been no commercial oil production.
News of a potential oil discovery was met with guarded optimism by the government. In a public statement, Daryl Vaz, the energy minister, calls the results “very positive”.
“They haven’t seen or touched the real deal, but [the results] are still important,” he says. “I am cautiously optimistic and praying very hard … because of what the impact of any discovery would be.”
If oil is confirmed within its territorial waters, the island will join Guyana and Suriname as the newest fossil fuel-producing states in the region. About half of the countries across Latin America and the Caribbean are in a race to find oil, after Brazil discovered deep-water reserves in the Atlantic in the 2000s.
Since then, prospecting has continued onshore and offshore, from Argentina to Caribbean islands, despite the climate crisis and the global push for a green energy transition.
Jamaica is still recovering from the Covid pandemic’s fallout and Hurricane Melissa, one of the most intense Atlantic hurricanes on record, which made landfall last October. The US-Israeli war on Iran has added to the economic pressures.
Radhika Bansal, vice-president of Latin American oil and gas research at Rystad Energy, an independent research company, is prudent about the significance of the discovery. “Jamaica is closer than it ever has been to a drill decision. But it is still very early days,” she says. “Even with a positive outcome, it would not be expected to yield or result in volumes [of oil] until the mid-2030s.”
Theresa Rodriguez-Moodie, head of the Jamaica Environment Trust, is astounded that oil drilling is being considered, given that Jamaica is experiencing the harshest effects of the climate crisis.
“We are on the heels of Hurricane Melissa,” she says. “You drive through sections of western Jamaica and there is still devastation … We have a $12bn bill for damage and we’re happy to talk about fossil fuel exploration. This is a big contradiction.
“If we want to have any kind of moral high ground to stand up and even ask for assistance for [climate] loss and damage, and for adaptation and mitigation, we cannot be considering exploring and expanding the fossil fuel industry.”
In 2017, Jamaica ratified the Paris agreement, the international treaty on climate change adopted by 194 states and the European Union in 2015. In 2024, the government called on other states to negotiate a fossil fuel non-proliferation treaty, a bold proposal that aims to phase out oil, gas and coal, which are responsible for 86% of emissions in the past decade. Last year, it committed itself to ambitious targets for the conservation and restoration of mangroves and seagrass on its coastal wetlands.
The Walton-Morant basin is located near some of Jamaica’s most productive fishing areas. Along the island’s south coast is Portland Bight – a protected area including mangroves, limestone forests and coral reefs – while Black River is home to the largest wetlands in the English-speaking Caribbean. Campaigners fear the impact of an oil spill on the Ramsar-listed sites would be catastrophic.
Jamaica is also a signatory to the Escazú agreement – an environmental treaty for Latin America and the Caribbean that guarantees everyone’s right to a healthy environment. Under the treaty, a development decision such as fossil fuel exploration requires a transparent discussion with citizens, says Nicole Leotaud, director of the Caribbean Natural Resources Institute.
“There is a lot of concern in the region that, while we have environmental impact assessment laws and regulations, there are implementation gaps,” Leotaud says. “The information released is complex and scientific, so local frontline communities who are most impacted can’t fully engage in discussions.
“Periods for consultation are very short and discussions are often not held in local communities,” she says.
“The Caribbean small island developing states have been very vocal on the global stage, calling for the commitment to 1.5C [(2.7F) above preindustrial levels] in terms of transitioning away from fossil fuels.
“They have to balance that voice with the need for energy security and economic development. However, the tourism sector in the Caribbean is the largest economic sector, so you don’t want to do anything that would compromise that,” she adds.
Courtney Lindsay, an expert on the Caribbean at ODI Global, an independent thinktank, believes Jamaica cannot ignore the prospect of oil reserves.
“[Talking about the climate crisis] is a first-world problem,” he says. “We don’t have the luxury of saying, ‘We don’t want to contribute to this issue of climate change’ because we are talking about a bread-and-butter issue.”
While there are renewable energy sources on the island, such as solar, hydropower and wind, they only account for about 13% of electricity generation. Jamaica has set an ambitious target of generating 50% of its electricity from renewable sources by 2030, but this requires significant investment.
While Jamaica is doing well fiscally, and in terms of jobs and reducing crime, no “Jamaican policymaker would even think about forgoing capitalising on oil revenue,” says Lindsay. “We are still in a dire situation.”
“Reducing our debt came at a high social cost. Education is in a shambles; healthcare is in a shambles. Welfare is pretty much nonexistent. There is still so much that needs to be done to lift Jamaica up to a higher standard of living.”
