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The Rassemblement National is not invincible. A year out from a make-or-break presidential vote, that might be the main lesson (though there are others, which may prove more significant) from last weekend’s local elections in France. What’s more, news elsewhere – Giorgia Meloni’s referendum defeat in Italy, Janez Janša beaten in Slovenia, Hungary’s Viktor Orbán in trouble, the left bloc largest in Denmark – might suggest the rest of Europe’s far right are not having it all their own way, either.
But let’s focus first on France – if only because while local elections are rarely a wholly accurate guide to future national outcomes, these ones seem to provide some pointers – and the stakes in the country’s next major election are vertiginously high.
After 10 years of Emmanuel Macron, this time next year French voters will be gearing up for the first round of a presidential election that polls suggest will be comfortably won by whichever of the RN’s Marine Le Pen or Jordan Bardella ends up running.
Depending on whom they face, some polls also project a far-right win in the second round. It’s difficult to overstate the implications of that – many analysts frame it as arguably the most significant threat to the EU’s architecture in its history. A victory for the nationalist far right could lead to a “France first” policy in which the bloc’s second biggest economy, and sole nuclear power, challenges further European integration and enlargement, scales back support for Ukraine and reshapes Nato.
Real-world electoral clues to possible dynamics of that election are welcome – and these local votes were an important early test of the RN’s strength. So how did it do? The party, naturally, hailed it “a major breakthrough”. Certainly, it now runs almost 60 small and medium-sized towns with more than 3,500 people, about seven times more than after the last local elections in 2020. But it failed its test in the bigger cities that it had the highest hopes of capturing.
The far-right party did win in conservative Nice – but through an ally, Éric Ciotti, in a very personal battle between two rightwing rivals. But it lost in its prime southern targets of Marseille, Toulon and Nîmes. Often, that was because left-leaning and more moderate right-leaning voters teamed up in a so-called “Republican front” to keep it out.
It all suggests the RN might not be quite as unbeatable as it has looked. But if the far right is not to furnish France’s next president, the parties of the traditional centre-right and -left, as well as Macron’s centrists, will have to play their part. The local elections may have had some lessons for them, too.
In Paris and Marseille, the centre-left Socialist party (PS), allied with other left-wing moderates, showed it could win without the backing of Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s radical left La France Insoumise – and that when it does ally with LFI, it often loses.
LFI, on the other hand, shunned by much of the mainstream left over allegations of extremism, antisemitism and street violence, scored a couple of symbolic wins including in Roubaix. It can motivate its base, but its reach is limited.
Headwinds hit Europe’s far right
The dilemma for the left will be to devise a strategy – and find a candidate – who will appeal to potential radicals without repelling moderate left-wingers. The same goes, on the other side of the spectrum, for centrists and the centre-right.
The conservative Les Républicains and Macron’s centrists lost in Paris and Lyon – but between them, allied or separately, they captured several former leftist bastions. A combined centre and centre-right bloc could, in theory, defeat the far right.
They would, however, need a single candidate, and half a dozen look set on running (with Edouard Philippe, handily re-elected mayor of Le Havre, perhaps the favourite). A lot of stars will need to align, but an RN win in 2027 might not be inevitable.
More broadly, there were other tentative signs this week that Europe’s populist far right may be encountering headwinds – perhaps due, in part at least, to what might be called a Trumplash. Ask Giorgia Meloni.
The Trump-whispering Italian prime minister lost her high-stakes referendum on judicial reform, seen as a de facto vote of confidence in her government, on a record-breaking turnout and, notably, with 61% of 18- to 34-year-olds voting against it.
The vote has few immediate consequences, though it may thwart an electoral law change that could help her in next year’s election. But as one analyst said, when you start losing in politics, “people look at you differently. You’re not invincible.”
In Slovenia, meanwhile, the centre-left incumbent Robert Golob managed a one-seat win ahead of Janša, a far-right nationalist; and in Hungary, Viktor Orbán, despite the shrill backing of his European populist allies and of Trump, could well be ousted.
In Denmark, the Social Democrats suffered their worst result in 120 years but remain, after two terms in office, by far the largest party, and Mette Frederiksen could form a new government at the head of the left-leaning “red bloc”, which finished ahead.
The far-right Danish People’s Party, meanwhile, improved significantly – but is still well below its pre-2019 support levels. Does standing up to Trump, as Frederiksen did over Greenland, and rejecting Trump-style populism, carry an electoral dividend?
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